outlook for next year

original article by MD of Morgan stanely
Here are some of the highlights of this article:

Any exit from the central bank in India ahead from exits from central banks elsewhere in the world will put upward pressure on the rupee. That has implications on how you make your portfolio picks.
Clearly, domestic stores would outperform exporters because of this situation, which we are running into as we go into 2010

The banks would be the probably best performing stocks in the first half of next year and on a relative basis they may offer much better returns to investors than software services companies.

We will start flirting with the 2008 high sometime in 2010.

The number that I shared with the earnings growth is really the broader market earnings growth, which we are looking at around which is 25%. It’s not the Sensex earnings number, so the broader market, which is actually cheaper than the Sensex and has faster earnings growth prospects, will stand to outperform in my view in 2010.

My head tell me that this is it, 2010 make your money and go home. But my heart tells me that India is on a breakout path. India is at an inflexion point in terms of growth. We have a population that’s getting younger. We have a massive influx to our workforce that is going to happen over the next five-years. These are precisely the factors that create a bull market.

So even while the globe is not supportive and that is why all these people that you mentioned who are not confident about this not being the next bull market – they are looking at the world and saying this is not the environment in which equities do well. India is clearly standing out. The idiosyncratic factors driving India are pretty much in place. So, there is a case for a bull market in India whereas its not there globally